Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 29.915637 32.122671 34.498923 37.262794 40.408756 43.902037 48.108123
2025-04-20 27.132892 30.217881 33.751991 38.158688 43.592767 50.197087 59.034790
2025-04-27 25.379179 28.981746 33.292303 38.948620 46.368723 56.079934 70.344422
2025-05-04 23.922097 27.833879 32.671613 39.279316 48.397020 61.113385 81.456396
2025-05-11 22.505751 26.556174 31.692647 38.931142 49.334352 64.638913 91.052669
2025-05-18 21.235908 25.338772 30.647517 38.322732 49.737729 67.329326 99.877102
2025-05-25 20.119068 24.228422 29.635473 37.624257 49.863402 69.524663 108.351536
2025-06-01 19.186470 23.294930 28.782352 37.050879 50.070889 71.828751 117.674999
2025-06-08 18.252375 22.301585 27.773355 36.147267 49.626903 72.896946 124.737368
2025-06-15 18.017305 22.241990 28.060902 37.198522 52.466913 80.364929 149.243859
2025-06-22 17.462312 21.704160 27.621545 37.077354 53.290879 84.144385 166.527320
2025-06-29 16.824105 21.016933 26.921754 36.482530 53.203847 86.055971 179.636520
2025-07-06 16.078275 20.161483 25.953156 35.424824 52.243971 86.124417 187.858979
2025-07-13 15.897489 20.105263 26.170734 36.319146 54.988310 94.913508 232.075164
2025-07-20 15.687263 19.992859 26.291302 37.054484 57.529028 103.977590 288.715706
2025-07-27 15.389468 19.735903 26.170621 37.359909 59.254059 111.554683 351.197756
2025-08-03 14.970693 19.280959 25.714888 37.039157 59.643782 115.711764 403.266905
2025-08-10 14.526454 18.770960 25.147538 36.478196 59.457197 118.226321 450.924483
2025-08-17 14.091137 18.259351 24.555345 35.833630 59.019854 119.929410 498.116718
2025-08-24 13.704992 17.809491 24.043609 35.304055 58.782188 122.227216 559.506805
2025-08-31 13.276126 17.281861 23.386400 34.468650 57.776076 121.880266 595.356815
2025-09-07 13.235454 17.344710 23.689682 35.440458 61.025583 136.710735 912.462312
2025-09-14 12.984118 17.073854 23.431473 35.328517 61.712336 142.954371 1179.217630